I must continue with tradition and look at possible election dates for this Spring. It’s expected that the volatility seen in the House before Christmas will have not subsided, and that the coming months will be a massive game of political chicken.
Parliament resumes on Monday, January 28. And, continuing with the belief that Harper will not collapse the government himself, trying to keep in line his Government’s belief in fixed election dates (remember Bill C-16), I will assume that the only way we’ll go to the polls is by a defeat of the government.
The earliest possible election date is Monday, March 10, then. Dion has talked about collapsing the Conservatives as early as February. If it were done on the second week of Parliament, we would look at March 17. If within the third, then we have an election around Easter (in fact, the first possible election date would be Tuesday, March 25; Monday is Easter Monday) - in that case, we may even see an extension to the 31st.
Parliament goes into a one week break, and then resumes the last week of February. A collapse then would put us into an April election.
Then comes March. The Budget is normally delivered in February/March, and Flaherty has said he expects to deliver it in March. A defeat within the first two weeks of March would put us in a mid-April election (The 14th or 21st of April, that is). The last two weeks of March are Parliamentary break anyways, so even without a defeat yet, this could easily become campaigning time.
What all this boils down to is, if Dion is serious about defeating the Harper Government, then a mid-to-late March (17th, 25th, 31st) or mid-to-late April (14th, 21st) are the likely election dates. Given the rhetoric surrounding this Spring’s parliament, I’ll frankly be surprised if an election isn’t called.
Now, the question is, what confidence issues will come up before the budget? The only things that come to mind is something with the environment, which Dion has pledged not to prop up the government for, or Afghanistan (Manley report). If we do see a February collapse, I’d expect it will be voted on in the second week of February; I would assume that Harper would engineer this timing so that we’re left going to the polls right after Easter so that any persons angry with the timing would take it out on the party that collapsed the government.
Otherwise, I expect the budget will be introduced late within the first week of March, and voted on (and defeated) in the second, giving us an April 21st date.
So my two dates are Tuesday, March 25, on a confidence issue; or Monday, April 21, on the Budget.
30.Dec.07 
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The rhetoric begins…
It’s been over a year since I’ve been pretty much completely prepared for an election. Two since I planned on running in the 40th General (or a by-election if it ever came up). Three since I started planning on running in the riding of Calgary West as an Independent.
As I sit here, I meditate over my reasons for not running in the 39th, as I posted in February 06.
There were a number of factors involved in not running. First and foremost would be campaign financing. I’m not running a campaign that I cannot be able to run a brochure or two, and be able to phone canvass properly. That said, most of my potential financial contributors have families, and Christmas isn’t the time for me to be asking for money for politics. And there really is no point to running a finance-less campaign unless it’s to get my name out, and there’s much more productive ways to do that..
Second, considering that this election was poised to create a small minority, another thing I wanted to avoid was asking for money then and then in 6 months from then. While minorities are great for running as an independent, it seemed to me that my level of pre-election preparation was not enough to warrant running then and then again soon thereafter. While I suspect that an election will not take place until *at least* November but more than likely next Spring/Summer, had the minority gone Liberal, we may have seen a much closer election.
Of course, it didn’t help that I started a new job at the end of October and life was just busy all-around. In the end, the decision was really a matter of not being able to run a strong campaign. I have appreciated all the strong words of support, though, and I do still intend to run eventually.
Well, I was incorrect about the length of this minority, but I think in general - as much as I would have achieved getting my name out - I think I made an intelligent decision for the 39th. Although, for *that* election I could have received $5,400 per donor, instead of the $1,100 I’m limited to now. Oh, and people could have given me $25 in cash (which was reduced to $20 by Bill C-2)…
Over the time that I’ve spent preparing since January 23, 2006, I have met a lot of people - and my name seems to have gone to all ends of the country as I have random people supporting me from all ten provinces. Even though my speech was not the biggest event of the year, the people who either heard or read the speech have had nothing but good things to say. My website continues to become more and more popular, and my name pops up on more and more websites dedicated to elections in Canada.
I don’t make New Year’s resolutions. I never have. I merely set goals. Two years ago, I began working on readying myself for Federal Politics. In 2008, I might have the chance to prove that I’m ready.
28.Dec.07 Uncategorized Read more Comment (1)
This Christmas I received a whole stack of books to read, which I normally do on the C-train on the way to and from work. Included are:
-Harper’s Team: Behind the Scenes in the Conservative Rise to Power by Tom Flanagan
-French Kiss: Stephen Harper’s Blind Date with Quebec by Chantal Hébert (I’ve been meaning to pick this one up for awhile now)
-The Way it Works Inside Ottawa by Eddie Goldenberg
-My Years as Prime Minister by Jean Chrétien
-Rick Mercer Report: The Book
-Giving: How each of us can change the world by Bill Clinton
-The Age of Turbulence by Alan Greenspan
27.Dec.07 Uncategorized Read more Comments (0)
Under the trees of political pundits this Christmas is… by-election fever!
Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced today that by-elections will be held on Monday March 17, 2008 in the ridings of Toronto Centre (Ontario), Willowdale (Ontario), Vancouver Quadra (British Columbia) and Desnethé-Missnippi-Churchill River (Saskatchewan).
and I didn’t get him anything… although, next year I intend to give him a new MP for the riding in which he lives… me
21.Dec.07 Uncategorized Read more Comments (0)
