By now you’ve heard that there was a $13.8B surplus for Canada’s last fiscal year. You probably also heard that it was all applied to the debt. Notwithstanding the fact that a law had already been introduced and passed that all surpluses must go onto debt repayment (which could be changed by parliament… I mean, they did repeal the Liberals’ Debt Servicing and Reduction Account Act at one point…), there has been lots of talk of where that money *could have* gone. And, you can make cases like the fact that Saskatchewan works on a third-third-third basis, or even that maybe putting $13.8B into preventative health could save hundreds of billions later.
However, all I really have to say is this. Harper put $14.2B (the $13.8 plus change) onto the debt, which will save us in interest $750M per year.
Now, to perform a little mathemagic…
$750M = $14.2 x (1 + i/12)^12 - $14.2
=> i = 0.0525 (approx)
Yes, if interest is compounded monthly, the approximate interest rate on the national debt, that this surplus saved us, is 5.25%.
It’s nice to know that the government is hard at work, making $14B earn 5.25% interest.
28.Sep.07 
Uncategorized 
Read more 
Comments (2)
Ok, I know I see over 150 unique IPs per week hit the weblog, and even taking account for search engines, news aggregators, and random searches, I still should have at least 50 people reading this thing. Is anyone out there?
25.Sep.07 Uncategorized Read more Comments (14)
I’m starting to see predictions of the actual *day* that the election will happen. In light of that, let me at least explain what the possibilities are:
The Throne Speech will come on October 16, and it’s likely that no debate will take place that day.
A Throne Speech has 6 debating days, and typically, there will be an amendment and a sub-amendment, each being a confidence vote. It will likely be the Bloc that will make the sub-amendment, and the vote for that will be on the second day of debate.
Assuming this, we see a Speech on the Tuesday, debate starting on the Wednesday, and the first confidence vote on Thursday. I kind of think the Bloc sub-amendment will be out of left field, and will not get the support of all three opposition parties. However, this could put us in an election as early as October 19 (and my speech at Silver Springs on October 21. See why I picked that day?).
If the sub-amendment does not go through, then the next vote is on the fourth day of debates, which will likely be Monday, October 22. The vote is on the amendment, likely moved by the Liberals. This is what I expect to take down the government, starting our election on October 23.
Barring this, and assuming the government debates the throne speech for 6 straight days instead of playing with the order paper, we’re looking at the last vote on Wednesday, October 24, on the throne speech itself.
Now, due to the rule that a federal election campaign must be at least 36 days, if the government falls on the second week (so either on the amendment or on the speech itself), then the earliest possible election day is December 3. If it falls on the sub-amendment, the earliest date is November 26. I also would not be surprised if it fell on Oct 24, that Harper would extend the campaign to a 47-day campaign, ending on December 10.
So, your three possible election days are November 26, December 3, and December 10, with the second choice being the most likely, in my mind.
25.Sep.07 Uncategorized Read more Comments (0)
With the NDP not expecting a Throne Speech they can support, and the Bloc laying down their demands this morning (the Duceppe’s speech here), it’s now up to the grits to make their move.
Dion has one month to convince Canadians he’s fit for Liberal leadership, unless he decides that the grits will support the Throne Speech. And that’s what this whole thing might be about - standing up for what you believe, or standing up to survive.
Dion has to do 5 things in the next month:
1) Set out clear demands from the Liberals, much like the Tories’ 5 priorities for 2006, much like the Bloc’s 5 demands. They must be short, elegant, and understandable to people who don’t breathe Canadian politics. Dion has begun to show this ability with the Khadr case, and has been praised for that. But he needs to go further, and set out clear demands. Best if he avoids past Liberals failures, too.
2) Short, catchy phrases. No matter how you look at it, politics requires polish, and the leader of the Liberal party needs some sound bytes. From what I understand, Dion is the type of person to know the inside and out of portfolios - that’s no longer his job, and if that is what he is trying to do, he will fail. As leader, you must trust your lieutenants to know their portfolios, and you must understand the problems, the scope, and the possible solutions. Then, turn these into sound bytes, where you present details within speeches across the country.
3) Ask questions. Again, this is related to #2 - Dion MUST be the main person talking in the House when debating the Speech from the Throne. Ignatieff’s prevalence has hurt Dion, and when you combine it with the conspiracy theories of the Outremont loss, it creates a political framework around Ignatieff. Ignatieff is not the leader.
4) Dion must use his intelligence. Canadians don’t want the same old Liberal party that simply opposes the main party on the other side. Preston Manning was popular for a reason - not only did he ask intelligent questions, using his nerd image within the House, but he also offered serious, thoughtful alternatives to the Government. Instead of opposing Afghanistan, he must talk about the refocus of image; Praise Peter Mackay for trying to get other NATO nations to pick up slack in the southern province and then say that the Liberals want the mission turned into a purely humanitarian one, moving away from the militaristic side. And explain why. Because right now, Dion’s the “nuh-uh” to the Tories’ “uh-huh!”.
5) Purge and unify. The old Chrétien and Martin camps are still alive in the party, as seem to be the Ignatieff and Kennedy camps. Dion needs to make some strategic decisions of who to trust, and who to keep close because he doesn’t trust. And he needs them to make statements that they support him - and again, include why. Because a) he needs to make sure Canadians know his strengths, instead of the recent focus on the weaknesses and; b) Canadians don’t believe when politician X says they support him without any specifics. And those that will not show their support, he must start to make strategic decisions about, because if they continue to have power within his circles, they will strike when the time is right.
22.Sep.07 Uncategorized Read more Comments (0)
