Hey. Look. People are rejoining the bandwagon. Come on, there’s plenty of room. I’m referring, of course, to the numerous pundits who, a month ago, said there’s no way an election would happen this Spring, and have now jumped onto the ‘Be Ready for Spring’ bandwagon. Just in time, too… I was getting lonely here…
Jean-Pierre Kingsley, former Chief Electoral Officer, is saying that his replacement better well be ready for this Spring…
26.Feb.07 
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In April last year, in a post entitled, “Fixed Dates,” I talked about the need for certain provisions to be met before I fully endorse fixed election date legislation. Not that I’m against fixed dates, but I believe that some concerns needed to be addressed before something should come forward.
Today, the Senate should be doing the third reading of Bill C-16, An Act to amend the Canada Elections Act. It is likely to pass without problem, and soon be designated for royal assent. Bill C-16 was first read in the House at the end of May (after my post).
Now, I mentioned two things. One is the possible length of campaigning. Of course, the sheer legislative nightmare of saying what’s campaigning and what’s not and such is obviously difficult. For example, I drove through Fort Macleod the other day and saw a sign for its MP that said, “Proud to support Ford MacLeod.” Now, given the possibility of an election and the rallying of troops, I suspect it’s a preemptive strike - but it’s not really campaigning, is it? I mean, you want your constituents to know who you are and come talk to you if they have concerns, so putting up signs could very well be a way of ‘helping’ constituents… That would easily be an argument for this sign. So, controlling the length of campaigning, while a nice goal, is legislatively difficult (wow. I expected the spell checker to pick out ‘legislatively’. huh). This is what I said last year:
Not only that, but if the censorship route takes precidence, now we have to somehow define what is allowable or not. But you really can’t say, “You are not allowed to talk to people about any forthcoming elections that you may or may not run in.” So, you will have loopholes. And, like any situation, the honest politicians (stop laughing) will wait whereas others will use the loopholes to their advantage
The second concern I had was with the date issue, which, I said, “is easy enough to find some sort of solution to, although I worry that it will not be addressed.” Well, C-16 does actually address that issue, and sets it as:
(2) Subject to subsection (1), each general election must be held on the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year following polling day for the last general election, with the first general election after this section comes into force being held on Monday, October 19, 2009.
So, once this receives assent, we will be on the road to fixed elections (always assuming, of course, that the government does not collapse, which this still has provisions for). I think my first concern can wait to be addressed until after we’ve had some practice at this fixed election thing - who knows, we may not need it. But I’ve always been one to exercise legislative caution - just because something doesn’t happen now, doesn’t mean it won’t. Either way, it’s something we can do in the future, if needed…
21.Feb.07 Uncategorized Read more Comments (3)
It looks like Québec is slated for a provincial election on March 26, as Charest goes to call an election after producing yesterday’s budget offering both tax cuts and increased health care spending.
March 19 is slated for Flaherty’s second budget on the Federal stage, which is expected to include more tax cuts for Canadians. Of course, by the end of Second Reading debates, we should be sitting in late March/early April when we start to see the crucial vote that could disassemble the current minority parliament. The problem for the opposition parties is that, with Federal surpluses where they are, this will easily be a ‘budget-for-everybody’ situation, and the parties will be hard pressed to vote against it and defend such action.
If, however, the parties see fit to take out the budget, we could very well be looking for an Easter campaign (Easter is April 8). To put it in perspective, C-13 was debated for a total of 5 days in parliament, starting on May 11, 2006 and the crucial 2nd Reading debate stage ending on May 19, 2006. Looking at this, assuming the will of the House is to bring the government down on the budget, we could see an election on either Monday April 30 or Monday May 7.
Of course, the opposition has little time if they want to take down the government on a non-budgetary motion. Parliament tends to break for the summer, coming back in September. With the Ontario Provincial Election taking place on October 10, 2007, with the campaign taking up most of September, it’s unlikely we’ll see a Federal election in that time (although it IS likely that Harper will play a bit with the opposition parties, tempting them to bring down the government during that time. Any party that can successfully piss off Ontarians is going to be hurting in the 40th Parliament). So, 36 days from October 10 (assuming parliament fell that day) puts us well into November. Any later, and it’s a Christmas campaign. again.
So the government falls in Spring, or it falls in… Spring. 2008. (or, assuming C-16 passes in the Senate and the Government doesn’t fall this parliament, October 19, 2009)
All I know is that I’ve got my running shoes ready for May.
21.Feb.07 Uncategorized Read more Comment (1)
So I’m down here in Lethbridge to visit the family, and lo and behold the Scotties Tournament of Hearts is on…
Anyway… Check out this video on TSN.ca. Even if you don’t like curling (but really, who doesn’t like curling!)… you can even skip ahead to 45 seconds or so in and watch from there…
17.Feb.07 Uncategorized Read more Comments (5)
